Prophet, Guru, Soothsayer- What can you tell me?

Taken from a recent Swaylock's post: Bill Barnfield, owner of our little surf shop/cyclery in Haleiwa has this to say. Quite interesting.

I wish I had the time to tackle this subject properly. It is much bigger then Clark Foam closing down. Clark was only one word in the whole phrase that is the "writing on the wall".

Here are some loose thoughts to consider....

Contrary to those promoting the death of pu/pe on this forum. Pu/pe will be around for awhile.

Manufacturing, like making blanks, is stupid to still be doing in the USA.

Manufacturing, like making surfboards, is stupid to be still doing in the USA.

The work force capable of the hand skills required doesn't exist in the USA anymore. Neither does the work ethic. Neither does the desire to do this kind of work. No glass shops exist that aren't struggling to find enough qualified employees. And young men with talent aren't desiring to become true surfboard craftsmen. They want to be surf celebrities, they don't actually want to take the time to gain the skills and earn the right to celebrity via their exceptional craftsmanship.

People that are interested in making surfboards want to do so much more for reasons of self esteem and ego then they really want to do it for money. They want to be seen as cool surfboard maker dudes, they just don't want to get their hands dirty actually doing the work!

Surfboards are now a matured product.
In other words.... the worst molded board exceeds the needs of 90% of those looking to consume them. Once a product reaches this state, the remaining "real" makers of "real" products still made in traditional ways must be able to compete by making or marketing their product in a way that radically exceeds the "perception of value" currently retained by the molded and mass marketed products. If the traditional craftsmen cannot achieve this he will die. And it is VERY difficult to do on any scale that will matter.

Since the molded, mass marketed surfboards will easily appeal to 90% of those looking for a surfboard the remaining consumers left available for traditional craftsmen to sell to as customers will radically shrink. These customers will not only be small in numbers but will be highly eccentric, enthusiasts that are very difficult to please and survive on economically. Additionally, they will be very knowledgeable and capable of finding deals from all the desperate surfboard craftsmen that are trying to hold on to their livelihoods and lifestyles. Because of this, "traditional craftsman" making surfboards by hand in the USA will be hovering on the edge of economic chaos. Too big and they won't be able to compete with mass market boards with top pros names on them. Too little and they won't be able to compete on the unleveled playing field created by the quasi commercial backyarders.

Shipping costs and economies of scale will continue to enhance offshore production, lowering costs and making consumer direct sales possible.

Boards will eventually be available direct to the consumer from the factories in China. These boards will be state of the art Top Pro models endorsed by those pros and marketed through the manufacturers or agents (like Randy French) on their behalf.

Shapers will not get a piece of this. Famous surfers and manufacturers will bypass the Shaper/Designers. There will be no value in paying a famous Shaper a royalty when you can knock off his design and put a famous pro surfers name on the board and only pay a single cheap royalty. Cheap you say!! Of course, pros will scramble over one another to whore themselves out to the highest bidder. When the manufacturer spends tons of money on ads in Surfer Magazine he can create the perception of value for any "pro". He will create his own heroes with ads and pay a paltry royalty per board for the "media pros" name. Eventually, even the world champion will have to settle for a cheap royalty deal. Just like shapers are starting to settle for now from Surf Tech. Heck, even Clark figured this one out and never had to pay a royalty for all the intellectual property he got from shapers via their blank plugs rockers etc.

Surf magazines will soon be inundated by mail order advertisers selling all manner of surf equipment at greatly reduced prices directly to consumers via mail order and Internet sales. Surf magazines won't be able to resist these advertisers money and they will whore themselves out scrambling over each other to "secure" these advertising accounts.

Even though everyone knows that the existence and success of mail order surf companies will be highly destructive to the traditional model of brick and mortar retailing that we have known for the last 40 years, suppliers will whore themselves out and crawl all over one another to get their products sold through the high volume mail order, direct distribution channel.

The amount of money that will move through this new channel will bypass all those who traditionally got a piece of the pie and consciously or not spread it around in their "local scene" where it dramatically drove the cool factor associated with the surfing lifestyle.

Surfing will loose a big chunk of its esoteric flair and cool factor. People won't find surfing necessary to their self esteem and the surfing industry as we know it will implode. I should note here that this is one of Gordon Clarks big fears all along. Once the "pixie dust" magic of being a surfer, surfboard maker, etc is gone, so will be the desire for the masses to participate. Some may see this as a very good thing......and I tend to agree with them!

Contests, local team riders, bro deals, surf heroes, surf scene, new surfwear companies, advertising in magazines, etc, etc are all things that will take a huge economic hit. It will vastly change the economic and hollywood like landscape that has energized surfing for so long.

As fast as any "new" materials, construction techniques or methods are discovered anywhere in the world, they will quickly gravitate to China or elsewhere where the economics of manufacturing is superior. No country will be able to retain exclusive rights to any material or mfg. process. Individuals may retain these rights, but they will seek the cheapest location to manufacture them and deliver them to a world market.

Styrofoam and Epoxy boards as often promoted on this forum won't be much more than a small blip on the radar screen as the whole industry transfers offshore in mass. The few remaining hand made custom surfboards made in the USA will be an eclectic mix of various materials and techniques as craftsmen struggle to define themselves and compete against the offshore boards that will be quickly made the same way out of the same materials

Shaping machines from China will produce superior results to any current machines and will sell for less then $20k WHAT! You don't think those Chinese students aren't learning anything at Stanford and MIT?? You think they can't seen the potential to sell cheap machines to all those new shapers that don't know how to use a planer, but can use a vector drawing program?

If enough of a "non-molded" surfboard market survives it will be extremely competitive. Too competitive for most to make a living at and the lack of craftsmen will require shaping machines. Maybe ones that will be able to sand the boards too!

Molded board prices will drop below $300.00 retail. Some will be as cheap as $125.00, and will be sold at Foodland on the North Shore!

Traditional hand crafted surfboards won't be able to compete. Some will survive but so few that it will be inconsequential. Consider guitars, bicycles, dirt motorcycles, tailors, cobblers, bakers, sign painters, etc, etc.

Giant Bicycles used to be the OEM manufacturer for Schwinn Bicycles in Taiwan. For decades, Schwinn was the biggest name in US bicycles of all time. Giant was an unknown factory in a third world hell hole.

Now Giant is among the Top 3 Bicycle brands in the USA and Schwinn after going bankrupt several times is sold in WalMart! Wake up and smell the coffee boys! Those guys know what they are doing and we are all only stepping stones on their way to economic success. Grab what you can while it is within grasp....

Hopefully that is enough to chew on for awhile!! Ha!!
BB